Why Are the Red Sox So Bad at Fenway?
The answer will shock you! (No, it won’t)
The Red Sox just lost another game at Fenway Park, and their 2026 home record is now 9-20. It’s all everyone is talking about and for good reason. The Sox have an all-time winning percentage of .567 at Fenway, which is very good. Only the Yankees (.613), Giants (.580), and Dodgers (.572) have better all-time home winning percentages. Fenway is one of the great home field advantages in sports.
Fenway has been a hitter’s park for as long as most of us can remember. Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Rice, Mo, Nomar, Manny, and Papi all mashed there. The beloved Citgo sign is the backdrop of home runs over the Green Monster (310 to left), but maybe it’s fitting that it’s being taken down and rebuilt this year. Left-handed hitters deposit home runs in the bullpen, which was built in 1940 to help Ted Williams hit more homers. There have been homers curled around the Pesky Pole (302 to right). The Monster is speckled with marks from “wall ball doubles.” It’s just a great place to hit.
I went back to 1969 (the year the mound was lowered to benefit hitters) and looked at the Red Sox performance at Fenway over the last 58 seasons. What does the data tell us about the 2026 Red Sox? It must be a total team failure, right? Well, not really. In the 57 seasons prior to 2026, the Red Sox ERA at Fenway is 4.18, a fairly high number but you must remember that Fenway is a hitter’s park for the opponents as well. In 2026, the staff ERA at Fenway is 3.72, good for 9th best in that 58-year span:
So yes as expected, it is the offense that is causing the Red Sox problems at home. Year after year, you could count on the Red Sox to score 5 runs per game at home. They have scored a full two runs less than that in 2026. That is a massive difference. Not surprisingly, the 2026 power numbers are the worst you can imagine. They are slugging 100 points lower and almost half a home run per game less than in the previous 57 years.
Again, this is not surprising. Craig Breslow’s failed attempts at acquiring a power hitter over the winter were punctuated by a Pete Alonso drive into the Monster seats last night. Alonso and Kyle Schwarber would have been superstars with the Red Sox, and their contracts were actually less than Breslow offered Alex Bregman. All the Red Sox GMs of the recent past such as Haywood Sullivan, Lou Gorman, Dan Duquette, Theo, Ben, and Dave knew the importance of tailoring an offense to Fenway Park. It’s really a no-brainer. It’s the easy button.
My suggestion to John Henry would be to take a lesson from the keepers of the Citgo sign. It’s time to tear it down and rebuild from the ground up. Stop relying on analytics and Driveline. Find players that can hit the ball out of the ballpark.