What the Numbers Say About Platooning
Alex Cora must love the 1986 hit movie Platoon. It sure was a great movie. Oscar worthy performances by Charlie Sheen, Tom Berenger (of Major League fame), and Willem Dafoe. I think Alex may be taking that movie a little too much to heart. He has shown an obsession with handedness in his managerial career. What is handedness? Quite simply, it is the notion that left-handed hitters hit right-handed pitchers better, and vice versa. This mostly comes from how breaking pitches break. A right-handed pitcher's breaking ball naturally breaks into the left-handed hitter, which helps the hitter see the pitch. Alternatively, a left-handed pitcher's breaking ball will break away from a left-handed hitter, making it tougher to hit.
A Glossary might help:
RHH - Right-Handed Hitter
LHH - Left-Handed Hitter
RHP - Right-Handed Pitcher
LHP - Left-Handed Pitcher
So, that's pretty simple, right? Just load up on RHH against an LHP and LHH against an RHP. If you look at plate appearances (PA) across MLB, they are generally 70% against RHP and 30% against LHP. That means that in a platoon situation, the RHH only gets 30% of the PAs. Also, if one side of the platoon is not a good defender or baserunner, do you sacrifice that for offensive production? Maybe if the platoon splits are close enough, you just play the better overall player. These are the decisions a manager needs to make when filling out the lineup card.
A Look at the Data
For the 2025 Red Sox, one thing is clear. Rafael Devers was the most consistent hitter from both sides of the plate (.907 OPS against RHP and .901 OPS against LHP). This is not common and speaks to how strong a hitter he is. Now he's gone and leaves a big hole in the lineup from both sides of the plate. Here is how the rest of the team shakes out, broken down by position:
Catcher
Obviously, there is no question here that Narvaez is clearly the better hitter from both sides of the plate. He gets the majority of the starts against any pitcher.
Infield
For Anthony and Mayer's splits, I am using their 2025 numbers at both the AAA and MLB level. Let's take Bregman out of the equation for now because he won't be back for awhile. Obviously, when he comes back he's your everyday third baseman. If you look at the best four hitters minus Bregman, what jumps out at you? Both Mayer and Campbell are in the top 4. If Cora is going by the numbers, they should play every day. This also indicates that against RHP you start Toro (who is a switch hitter) and Gonzalez. Against LHP you start Story over Toro. Gonzalez is your every day 1B. Cora’s problem is that he ignores these splits and starts his guy Trevor Story every day.
Outfield
As you can see, Roman Anthony has "reverse splits" meaning as a LHH he actually hits LHP better. Again, what stands out? To me, this indicates that Anthony should play every day. You play Duran and Abreu against RHP and Rafaela and Refsnyder against LHP. The only problem here is that you lose Rafaela's defense against RHP which again is 70% of the time. This may be one of those times that you ignore the splits and start the better overall player in the field. Cora has shown that he is willing to do that as Rafaela starts almost every game. Duran is in the same boat as we all know he does not like to take a day off. This gets back to the crowded outfield theory. However, now that Devers is gone, the solution is to DH one of these players every game in a rotating fashion. I'm not sure how well that would work, but it would keep the players engaged even if they were not playing the field. Obviously, the other option is a trade.
What does all this mean? First off, we know that Cora and the front office are data driven for better or worse. So far, he has been hesitant to start Mayer and Anthony against LHP, but is that the correct move? Mayer is still better than Toro or Hamilton against LHP and Anthony has shown that he hits LHP very well in the minors. Campbell's numbers are not great against any pitching, but he hits RHP better than Story and Hamilton, and he hits LHP better than Toro and Hamilton. Conclusion: PLAY THE KIDS EVERY DAY. There will be some tough days, but the numbers actually support it at this stage of the season. When Bregman comes back, we re-assess. I'm really not sure where the Red Sox are going this season given the Devers trade, but one thing is for sure. They're not going anywhere unless the kids learn how to play and play well.