What is the Path to the Playoffs for the Red Sox?

Two tough series await

In late August, the Red Sox took 7 out of 8 games from the Yankees and Orioles to go 15 games over .500. This was the high point of the season. Over the last 7 series (21 games), the Red Sox are 10-11, still 14 games over .500. Even given their lackluster performance, they are in the heart of the Wild Card race. They are currently in the second Wild Card spot, one game ahead of the Guardians and Astros. The last 2 series of the year are against the Blue Jays starting Tuesday and the Tigers starting Friday.

For the purposes of this discussion, let's assume the Blue Jays and Mariners win their divisions. This is not a stretch since the Mariners are on a heater, winning 9 of their last 10. The Yankees are only 2 back in the division and have series against the White Sox and Orioles, so that bears watching. The teams that will most likely have an effect on the Red Sox playoff hopes are the Guardians, Astros, and Tigers.

Scenario 1: Tigers hold off the Guardians and win the AL Central

This is probably the best scenario for the Red Sox since they hold the tie breaker against both the Guardians and the Astros by winning the season series against both teams. They have one more win than both, meaning that for either team to finish ahead of the Red Sox, they need to win 2 more games than Boston. In order for the Red Sox to be eliminated, BOTH teams would need to finish ahead of them. For example, if the Red Sox finish 3-3 (a very plausible scenario), both the Guardians and Astros would need to finish 5-1 to knock out the Red Sox. The Guardians are white hot, winning 9 out of their last 10, but the Astros have fallen out of the division lead and have been struggling. They finish with the A's and Angels, so a pretty favorable schedule for them.

Scenario 2: Guardians take the AL Central

The Guardians have a 3-game set against the Tigers starting Tuesday. Detroit has lost 9 of their last 10 and is in freefall. All signs point to the Guardians taking care of business and winning the division. This is where Murphy's Law comes in. Hot streaks end. It is very hard to keep up a torrid pace at the end of the season. The Tigers could hold on, but if they don't, they are now a Wild Card contender along with the Red Sox and Astros. Boston and Detroit currently have the exact same record, with 85 wins, but in this scenario the Tigers own the tie breaker over the Red Sox. Add to that the fact that the Red Sox and Tigers play the last 3 games of the year at Fenway Park. This series could set up to be for all the marbles. If it is, the Red Sox will not have their top 3 starters as they will all pitch in the Blue Jays series. Giolito could possibly pitch in the Sunday game on 4 days rest if needed.

Best Case Scenario

Obviously, the Red Sox control their own fate and winning 4 or 5 of the last 6 would be ideal. Given their challenges at the plate, the obvious tiring of their top starters, and middle relief suckage, I think winning 3 of the last 6 is the ceiling. They will need help from other teams to get in. Given all of that, I think there is a good probability that the Red Sox make the playoffs. If they can take at least one from the Blue Jays, and the Tigers are still in free fall by the weekend, they can lock it up and have Garrett Crochet primed to pitch game one of the Wild Card round.