Trade Value Update
Five weeks to the deadline. What is Breslow smoking?
The Red Sox are currently 32-45, 13 games under .500 with the fewest number of wins in the American League. They are six games back in the race for the final wild card spot, with eight teams ahead of them in the race for that spot. Fangraphs has their playoff percentage at 10.3 percent. Apparently, that’s not enough evidence for Craig Breslow to admit that they should be sellers:
“We’ll be realistic and do what is best for the organization,” Breslow said. “But I still think that we’re capable of playing better and stacking some wins together and hope that we can do that in the [coming days and weeks]. ...
“We’re still not at a point where that decision is clear. Because like I said, we’ve got a lot of baseball games to play between now and then, and we’re going to do everything we can to get the ship righted for 2026.”
OK, Craig. Go ahead and die on that hill. With the ship going down by the head, Titanic captain Edward Smith locked himself in the wheelhouse and went down with his ship. If Breslow chooses that path, he will be damaging the future of a once proud franchise. It is incomprehensible to me that John Henry and Sam Kennedy are allowing this rube to manage another trade deadline, but here we are.
The Red Sox have a couple of very valuable assets that will be prime trade chips at the deadline. At least three of them will not have a higher value than today. The longer he waits, the higher the chances of injury or poor play. It’s time to start dealing, however everything we have heard is that Breslow is not taking calls from other teams seriously.
Aroldis Chapman
He has had another fantastic year. Up until The Blip in Colorado, he had a 0.83 ERA with a 12 K/9. He was untouchable. Four hits and 3 earned runs later, did his value take a hit? That will depend on his next outing. That was only his fourth outing in June so a case can be made that he is not getting enough work. When you’re a closer and your team is losing, that will happen. I think his value is still high. The risk is of course injury or another few bad outings.
Sonny Gray
Gray has been lights out recently. In his four June starts, he has 3 wins, a 2.73 ERA, and 25 strikeouts. He is having one of his best seasons in recent years. His trade value is the highest it’s been this year. His is the only true expiring contract the Red Sox have. This is most desirable for an acquiring team as they don’t have to worry about commitments past this season. He is currently the most valuable trade chip the Red Sox have.
Willson Contreras
Contreras is only 4 for 30 in his last 8 games, but that shouldn’t affect his trade value much. He is having a terrific year slashing .281/.377/.521/.898 with 16 home runs. He’s 34 years old and has one more year left on his deal, plus a club option. Would that scare away potential trade partners? Maybe, but there may not even be a season in 2027 so a team may bet on him helping them in 2026. He is probably not as valuable as pitching, which is always a premium at the deadline, but he will certainly garner interest.
Jarren Duran
He is having his worst year since 2023, slashing .199/.258/.366/.624. He’s been downright awful. Even if a team would want him for his speed and potential, the price would not be that high. Would Breslow make that deal just to get him out of town? It all depends on whether he expects Duran to be a part of the future. Once Anthony returns, the outfield is full. I think he will eventually listen to offers and probably pull the trigger.
Garrett Whitlock
If they move Chapman, Whitlock probably becomes the closer. He’s had a couple of clunkers this season but has generally been a very solid reliever. He is controllable through 2028, which makes him very valuable to the Red Sox, however his trade value will be very high. If they trade both Chapman and Whitlock, this signals a ground up retooling of the bullpen. Personally, I think trading away your last effective reliever is a mistake.
Other Trade Candidates
Breslow shouldn’t rule out trading anyone. IKF may have some value but he’s currently on the IL. Story and Yoshida also have very little value and their bloated contracts thru 2027 are probably a non-starter for an acquiring team. I think Abreu and Rafaela are safe unless somebody offers a massive package, which they won’t. The catching trio is probably also non-tradable unless it’s for a bag of balls.
So, if we are talking maximum value, it will be for Gray and/or Chapman. Does Breslow have the stones to pull off these deals? My default answer is no, but there is an outside chance that Theo Epstein gets involved in the negotiations. If that happens, we might be surprised. Trade deadline deals are all about talent evaluation, an area where Breslow has been awful. They just recently sent scouts back into the field. Can you imagine a team that doesn’t rely on in-person scouting? It’s mind boggling but that is the current state of your Red Sox. So, say a prayer, Red Sox Nation. “Oh, merciful Theo…”