The Run Prevention Red Sox
It is becoming clear how the Red Sox will need to win games in 2026
We are still in the very early part of the season, but the Red Sox have played better in the last 10 games (6-4). They are now closer to being a .500 team. The internal numbers still don’t look very good, especially on offense.
They are still bottom third in most offensive categories. They continue to hit their fair share of doubles. I have been pleasantly surprised with Ceddanne Rafaela. He has only walked 4 times but has an OBP of .369. His plate appearances have been much better, and he’s only struck out 12 times, as opposed to team leader Trevor Story with 29. Wilyer Abreu has (predictably) cooled off from his red-hot start, but Willson Contreras has improved to become the team’s best hitter.
The lack of power is still evident. The Red Sox are 26th in slugging percentage and 30th in home runs, both well below their pace last year. Yes, you read that right. The Red Sox have hit 12 home runs in 20 games, 6 by Abreu and Contreras. Those of us who criticized Craig Breslow’s failure to acquire a power hitter were shouted down by the most optimist faction of Red Sox Nation, especially after the WBC. “Don’t worry, the power will come!” they said. OK, we’re still waiting. One bright spot is situational hitting. They are hitting a very respectable .263 with RISP, good for 12th in the majors. They are also leaving fewer runners on base.
We have now been through the starting rotation 4 times. All 5 starters have been healthy and made all their starts, which is a good thing. Connelly Early leads the starting staff with a 2.29 ERA and has been very consistent. The other four, not so much. Crochet started out OK but had a disastrous 11 run start against the Twins. He claims he is healthy, but that is a possible red flag. He has not looked as dominant as last year so far, but he can still turn it around and have an effective season. Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray have essentially had 2 good starts and 2 bad ones, but Suarez’s last 2 outings were outstanding, 14 innings pitched with no runs allowed. That’s good news for him going forward. Bello has been mostly bad and has not been able to pitch deep into games.
As expected, the back end of the bullpen has been very good. Aroldis Chapman is not as dominant as he was last year, but he is still one of the best closers in the game with a 1.29 ERA, 9.0 K/9, and 3 saves. Danny Coulombe and Jovani Moran have been good, but the rest of the middle has been shaky, especially Ryan Watson, Greg Weissert, and Zack Kelly. Craig Breslow has some work to do, otherwise the bullpen could cost them more games. Overall, the staff is top half in runs allowed, and the bullpen has risen to 11th in the majors.
As for fielding, the Red Sox have not made an error in the last four games, and are out of the cellar in errors, currently 23rd in MLB.
Prior to the start of the season, once Craig Breslow failed to add a power hitter, he announced that the 2026 Red Sox would be all about pitching and run prevention. That is evident now more than ever. They have struggled to score runs, and many of the games they won have been because the pitching has been good. I see no reason for this trend to stop. The starters will need to go deeper, which has been a problem. Brayan Bello has averaged only 4.7 innings per start, and Connelly Early 4.9. The staff average is 5.0. This has taxed the middle part of the bullpen, and they have not responded well. Bullpen overuse has been a recent trend for the Red Sox over the course of the last few years. Cora and Bailey will need to find a way for the starters to go at least 5 innings, preferably 6, so that the bullpen only has to worry about the last 2 or 3 innings.
Alex Cora has experimented with many different lineups and none of them have been particularly effective. Even though it doesn’t seem like it, they have cut down on strikeouts and improved situational hitting overall. I think game one against the Tigers typified the Red Sox offensive situation. They did not score a run in nine innings. With the ghost runner on third in the 10th, Masataka Yoshida hit a ground ball to second base, which he does often and is typically an out, but with the infield drawn in it was a walk off hit. In game 2 of the Tigers’ series, they once again scored only one run against Tarik Skubal and the Tiger bullpen.
Cora is grasping at straws at this point, and there are not many signs that the situation will improve any time soon, but the path to a winning season will need to go through the pitching staff and the defense, as “envisioned” by Craig Breslow. His lame attempt at adding offense in the offseason has led us to this. The starting five will need to go deeper into games and allow fewer runs. The defense will need to be solid. Unfortunately, when you have little to no pop in your lineup, this is how you must win games. This leaves them with a razor thin margin for error. Good luck with that.