The Red Sox Have Entered The Matrix
After a pathetic 78 games to start the season, what changed?
The Red Sox just completed a 14-2 stretch leading into the All-Star break. This came after one of the worst starts in Red Sox history at 32-46. People were ready to write this team off, and with good reason. So, what happened?
First off, they scored more and allowed fewer runs, always a recipe for success. Over the 16-game stretch, they scored almost one more run per game. They also allowed over one fewer run per game. Add that up and out pops a +34 run differential over 16 games, which is mind-blowing. But how did they do that? Nothing fundamentally changed. It’s essentially the same roster.
To start, the pitching has been phenomenal. A starter ERA of 2.18 and a bullpen ERA of 3.03. Did the starters go deeper into games? Not really. They have averaged just over 5 innings most of the season. The bullpen allowed only 20 earned runs in 16 games, and 12 of those were in the two losses to the Nationals. That’s 8 earned runs in the 14 wins over that stretch. Again, mind-blowing.
As for the offense, how did they accomplish an additional run scored per game? Did the lineup all just start to hit at once? Was there a power surge? Did they hit better situationally? Again, not really. They did, however, get on base more. Home runs were up slightly but the power numbers were pretty much the same. You saw this if you watched the games. They bunted more. They used the sacrifice fly. They moved runners over. They were aggressive on the base paths. I wouldn’t necessarily call it small ball, but they played smarter. Is this a Chad Tracy influence? Maybe. More on team dynamics later. From an individual standpoint, the offense was fueled by a few key hitters with Contreras and Durbin leading the charge. Connor Wong also had a nice stretch.
There are some players who are still dismal at the plate, including our own fan favorite Jarren Duran. Romy Gonzalez came back and provided a spark against LHP but continued to prove he is a platoon player at best.
I think a big reason for this change could be what is happening behind the scenes. Several weeks ago, we got double barrel comments from John Henry (thru translator David Ortiz) and Theo Epstein. Henry expressed his displeasure with the direction of the team and Epstein criticized Breslow’s reliance on analytics. Shortly thereafter, the founder of Driveline left his position as team consultant. The Red Sox also announced they were sending scouts back into the field. Players such as Caleb Durbin went outside the organization for swing coaching. Don’t be surprised if it comes out that Theo Epstein has taken a more hands-on role in baseball operations.
So, the two questions are is this level of performance sustainable and will it be enough to make the playoffs. My personal opinion is that the Red Sox were not as bad as their first 78 games and are not as good as the last 16 games. As usual, they will fall somewhere in the middle. As to the question of playoffs, I quote this tweet from @bostonsportsinf:
I think the chances of the Red Sox rewriting the record books with a team of AAA players is slim and none. Injuries are still an issue, and the return of Anthony, Crochet, Early, and others is not guaranteed. It’s been a great run, but I don’t think it’s sustainable. We will get an early look at this when they start the second half with 10 games against the AL East.
A third question is will they buy or sell at the deadline. I’m an educated man, but I’m afraid I can’t speak intelligently about the trade habits of Craig Breslow. So far, his two “buy” deadlines have been a joke. There are some players out there, but does he have the ability and the cojones to make deals with the big boys of MLB GMs? Doubtful. If he sells, do we trust him to evaluate young talent and get a good return for the likes of Chapman and Gray? Again, doubtful.
At least we have a chance to see some decent baseball over the next few months, and that is a damn sight better than what we’ve had to endure for the first part of the season. Low bar, I know.