The Red Sox are Employing Hope as a Strategy

This assumes Craig Breslow actually has a strategy

In the movie Deepwater Horizon, Mark Wahlberg’s character cautions BP executives about using hope as a strategy. That movie ended with a drilling rig on the bottom of the ocean.

Craig Breslow’s “strategy” seems to be fluid. At the start of the offseason, his priorities were adding a top of the rotation starter and two “power bats.” He got his starter in Ranger Suarez. However, once he whiffed on Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Kyle Tucker, Jorge Polanco, and Eugenio Suarez, the strategy somehow morphed into “defense and run prevention.” In other words, it’s OK if our offense sucks because our pitching and defense will be good.

It is plausible that the Red Sox will have a good pitching staff in 2026. As for the defense, I see no evidence that Breslow has done anything to upgrade it. Willson Contreras is a mild upgrade over the parade of jamokes that have manned first base over the last two seasons. Trevor Story’s skills at SS are fading, and barring a big trade for an infielder, second base will be manned by Romy Gonzalez and/or David Hamilton. Marcelo Mayer is projected to play third.

Breslow’s only moves have been to trade for Willson Contreras and allow Alex Bregman and Rob Refsnyder to walk. Don’t sleep on the impact of Rob Refsnyder leaving. He was an excellent RH bat in the Cora Platoon Dynasty. His performance against LHP was responsible for several wins last year. Is adding Contreras enough to make up for that? There has also been no attempt to add power to the lineup. Since the Devers fiasco of last year, it is very hard to see which member of this offense can hit 30 home runs or slug .500 (my minimum requirements for a power hitter).

Does this team have a playoff caliber offense? Presently, on paper, the answer is no. Can this team have a playoff caliber offense? What would need to happen for that to be true? This is where hope comes into play.

Hope as a Strategy

The Red Sox know (or should know) what they have for the majority of the veteran hitters on the roster. There is no mystery with Jarren Duran, Trevor Story, Willson Contreras, Romy Gonzalez, Conor Wong, and David Hamilton. The unknowns are with the second-year players, and maybe also the third-year players. Let’s start with them first.

Rafaela and Abreu

There is still some hope that these players can become stars at the major league level. They both had periods of excellent performance at the plate in 2025. There is no questioning their defense as they are both gold glovers. Can they become consistent major league hitters capable of leading a team to a deep run in the postseason? Rafaela’s free-swinging approach at the plate bothers me. When he connects, it goes a long way. He is not patient and strikes out way too much. Can plate patience be taught after two full years in the majors? We’ll see.

Wilyer Abreu is a much more patient power hitter, but his BA and OBP have decreased each year, and he still strikes out too much. Plus, he has a nagging injury history. We saw periods when he was the hottest hitter on the planet as we did with Rafaela. If they can both put it all together in 2026, this is a much different offensive team.

The Sophomores

Roman Anthony is obviously one of the most exciting players on the team. He showed us what he is made of and can definitely be one of the brightest MLB stars in 2026. But nothing is guaranteed. He only played 71 games in 2025. Can he stay healthy and give us an MVP caliber run in 2026?

Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell are major question marks. Campbell had a hot start to the season, but once the league caught up to him, faded quickly. Marcelo Mayer was very good defensively but struggled at the plate, especially against lefties. He is tailor made to be part of the Platoon Dynasty in 2026 (Eaton/Sogard). His injury history caught up with him once again and he only played 44 games in the majors. Carlos Narvaez was a nice surprise, but once again faded at the plate after a hot start. He is, however, a very solid defensive catcher.

Breslow is said to still have plans to add an infielder, but his options are waning. Ketel Marte or Nico Hoerner would be the desirable targets, but the price would be high, and the Diamondbacks and Cubs don’t seem eager to trade them. Other options wouldn’t move the needle.

So, keep your eyes on Abreu, Rafaela, Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, and Narvaez. The only way this team contends is if these players become stars. Craig Breslow’s “strategy” is to put the season in their hands. Let’s hope the Fenway Park drilling rig stays afloat.