The Myth of the Red Sox Offense

"Hitting is fifty percent above the shoulders" -Ted Williams

The first half of the 2025 season was lackluster for the Red Sox. They were 40-41 and had only scored 10 more runs than they allowed (run differential). They only had 3 players with an OPS over .800, Bregman, Gonzalez, and Refsnyder. The core of the team (Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, and Story) were underperforming. Roman Anthony was struggling as a recent call up.

The Stretch

The next 17 games leading up to the All Star Game had everyone proclaiming this team had arrived. Duran, Anthony, Abreu, Gonzalez, Story, and Rafaela all had an OPS over .900. The team went 13-4 and was on an incredible hot streak riding into the ASB. The run differential over that 17 game stretch was 51. The team slashed .291/.347/.516/.864, all tops in the majors. They also led the majors in runs, hits, doubles, RBIs, and total bases over that stretch. The team had finally become what every Red Sox fan had dreamed about since 2018.

The Break

The Red Sox have played 24 games since the All Star Break. Their record in those games is 13-11. The offensive numbers in those games are remarkably similar to the numbers from the first 81. No, that can't be true. Red Sox Wishful Thinking Twitter is convinced that this is still the same team that went on that 13-4 run, including 10 straight. While there is some truth to the old baseball adage "just get into the playoffs and anyone can win" there are serious questions about how good this team really is. Don't believe me? Here are the numbers that don't lie.

Notice the post ASB slash lines that are remarkably similar to those thru game 81. I mean, so similar that you probably think I made them up. I didn't. Run differential post ASB is 32, but here's why that's deceiving. Three of those games were won 13-1 (Twins), 10-2 (Padres), and 14-1 (Astros). That's a run differential of 33 in just those 3 games. That means that their run differential in the other 21 games is -1. Which team do you think is more representative of the current Red Sox?

But certainly the players have broken out, yes? We all saw Rafaela, Story, and Abreu do their King Kong impressions on that 13-4 run.

The only players that have continued their hot hitting are Duran, Anthony, and Bregman, and they have powered the team to most of the post ASB wins. Anthony is a legit star with a shot at the Rookie of the Year and Duran is reminding us all of his breakout 2024. Abreu and Story have regressed to their first half numbers. Rafaela, Narvaez, and Toro have all gotten significantly worse.

The Expectation

The AL Wild Card is essentially four teams competing for three spots. Cleveland has been hot and is a game out as it stands today. The Red Sox could play .500 ball the rest of the way and win 86 games. Is that enough? Probably. They still have a 73.2% chance of making the playoffs. The schedule gets a bit easier with 40 games left but 10 of those games are against the Yankees and Guardians. The last 6 are against the Tigers and Blue Jays. How they perform over the last part of the season will probably be very dependent on pitching. The starters and bullpen have performed reasonably well. Just don't count on the offense to bail you out of games. They are streaky as hell and can put up bushels of runs, just not consistently. If they have another monster 15-20 game stretch left in them (probably against bad teams), they might just be able to lock this thing up for good.