The All Important Second Bat
Breslow can either be a hero or a zero, but it’s not really up to him, is it?
The prospects of a killer offseason are gone. Red Sox fans were expecting Pete Alonso, Joe Ryan, Tarik Skubal, Kyle Schwarber, Ketel Marte, Bo Bichette, or Alex Bregman. A couple of those options are still on the board, but hope is dwindling fast. Bichette or Bregman will cost at least $25M per year. The Red Sox payroll currently sits at the first CBT threshold of $244M. We suspect that John Henry won’t authorize another $20M to put them at the second threshold.
Willson Contreras is their new first baseman, a solid but not needle-moving option. He will solidify the first base position and hopefully save us from another season of Triston Casas drama. He has some power but is obviously not Alonso or Schwarber at the plate. Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo are their new starters. Again, this is not blowing anyone’s skirt up, although they will be sold by the team as solid #2 and #3 pitchers. In reality, they are probably #3 and #4 material, which makes Brayan Bello the #2. Again, not needle-moving.
So, Breslow, who we know is payroll limited, is probably going to seek a trade for the “second bat” he’s been talking about. With the first base and starter holes “filled” he will probably focus on someone to play 2B or 3B. Bichette or Bregman would be the obvious choices, but we suspect John Henry will not green light that kind of money. Ketel Marte’s CBT hit is around $17M, so the Red Sox would need the Diamondbacks to pay a portion of that or take the Red Sox bad contracts in return. Mike Hazen is way too savvy to fall for that. Reports out of Arizona indicate that Hazen will only deal Marte if the trade package is significant. That means young pitching, which the Red Sox can’t afford to lose.
Two other names that have been linked to the Red Sox are Brendan Donovan and Isaac Paredes.
Paredes is younger, has played more games at 3B, and has a bit more pop than Donovan. He also hits LHP much better. Donovan is better at hitting with RISP and is projected to be about $4M cheaper than Paredes. Sadly, this may be the only factor that matters to the Red Sox. First, the Red Sox need to figure out where they want to play Marcelo Mayer. He played limited games at 2B and SS last season and 39 games at 3B where he looked very comfortable and committed only one error.
My choice would be to put Paredes at 3B and Mayer at 2B to start the season. This would provide flexibility in case they need to move Story off SS for either injury or poor play. Mayer could easily slide to SS. Paredes is younger, an overall better hitter, and would not need to be platooned.
I think the Red Sox will trade for Brendan Donovan. He’s cheaper and Craig Breslow can once again work with his BFF Chaim Bloom. Bloom will want young pitching which probably means one of Tolle, Early, or Harrison. That’s a big price to pay. Could Breslow convince Bloom to take Duran, Casas, or Yoshida to offset Donovan’s salary? Maybe, but Bloom is in a salary dump situation in St. Louis just like he was in Boston. I don’t think it gets done without one of the Red Sox young, cheap, controllable starters. Maybe a starter and Casas gets it done.
A deal with Houston is probably harder. They are still contenders and also want controllable pitching since they are probably losing Framber Valdez. GM Dana Brown has been around the block and definitely won’t fall for Breslow’s salary dump games. They might want Duran, a young starter, and one other piece. It’s a big price to pay, but what other options does Breslow have at this point?
Obviously, the best move for the 2026 Red Sox is to sign a free agent. Bo Bichette is the preferred target at this point, which will cost the team $25-$30 million per year for maybe 4-5 years. Alex Bregman will be about the same. What are the chances that John Henry will want to commit that type of money? Slim and none. The only other option is to stick with the roster as currently constructed, which probably means Mayer at 3B and whoever at 2B. Not ideal.
Whatever happens with this second bat will tell us a lot about the 2026 Red Sox. It will tell us just how much they want to win. It will tell us just how cheap they are with the payroll. They whiffed on a true power bat and a true #2 starter. If they whiff again with this move, the chances of a championship run will take a massive hit.