Ten Burning Questions About the 2026 Red Sox
Will the returning core of players take steps forward?
This will be an interesting offseason for the Red Sox. They have some glaring needs, but they also have many returning players. How will those players perform in 2026? Will there be steps forward or steps backward? Does this team ultimately have the makings of a championship caliber squad?
I’m going to start with the easy questions:
1) Can Garrett Crochet continue his Ace-ness?
This is the easiest question by far. Crochet was a beast in 2025. He pitched 205 innings, 59 more than in any previous year. Durability should not be an issue going forward. He led the league with 255 strikeouts and an 11.2 K/9. Maybe most impressive was his 1.028 WHIP and 5.5 K/BB. He just doesn’t let runners get on base. He is one guy you won’t have to worry about in 2026.
2) What should we expect from Aroldis Chapman?
Chapman turned in a 2025 that was arguably the best ever by a Red Sox closer, or at least second to Koji Uehara’s 2013. Can he replicate that in 2026? I doubt it, but he can still be one of the best closers in the league. He’ll be 38 when the season starts, which is of course a concern, but I see no reason for a big drop off in performance. He is a freak of nature with a rubber arm second only to Nolan Ryan. Give him the ninth and be done with it.
3) Will Roman Anthony tear up the league in 2026?
Roman Anthony had a rookie season that was both spectacular and disappointing. It was spectacular in the sense that we saw everything we expected from him and more. He has great plate discipline, gets on base a ton, runs the bases well, and has gap power to all fields. His home run stroke was just starting to come around when he got hurt for the season. The disappointment of course is that we didn’t see enough of him. The Red Sox brought him up too late (manipulating service time?) and he exited the season too early. I expect his 2026 to be more of the same. He will develop the power stroke and be the Red Sox best hitter.
Now the harder questions:
4) Which Ceddanne Rafaela will show up in 2026?
Rafaela had a great June/July, slashing .285/.314/.547/.861. That’s the Ceddanne we want. For the other 4 months of the season, he slashed .232/.268/.349/.616. Here’s the problem as I see it. The highest OBP for any month in 2025 was .327, which is serviceable but not great. He’s still a free swinger and not particularly patient, which works for some players, but not for him. I just don’t know if you can teach that at this point in his career. He did have the highest OBP and SLG of his career in 2025, so there is hope, and of course his gold glove defense provides most of his value. I think he will continue to improve at the plate in 2026, how much is the question.
5) Will the Platoon Dynasty continue?
Alex Cora loves platooning, for a couple of reasons. First, he has two of the best hitters of left-handed pitching in the game. For all hitters with at least 100 plate appearances in 2025, Romy Gonzalez was ranked 8th in OPS and Rob Refsnyder was ranked 13th. All the hitters above them are everyday players. These are assets Cora can’t ignore. Second, several of his everyday left-handed hitters do not hit LHP well. They include Abreu (.676), Duran (.600), Yoshida (.500), and Mayer (.416). These could all be starters in 2026. So, what should Cora do? The good news is Wilyer Abreu’s LHP split was the best of his career so far, so the case can be made for playing him against all pitching. Mayer is young, so he will probably still be platooned. Yoshida is what he is, and if they don’t move him, you will have to deal with his deficiencies, which are many. I think the Dynasty will continue in 2026.
6) What should we expect from the catching position?
Carlos Narvaez was a pleasant surprise in 2025. He grabbed the starting catcher role and didn’t let it go. It didn’t help that Connor Wong got injured early and then turned in an awful season at the plate. Narvaez wore down as the season progressed, which made sense given he played the most games of his career in 2025. Will he be a star in 2026? That’s questionable. His defense is great except for his strange catcher’s interference problem (I still don’t understand why that can’t be corrected). I think he will continue to be a serviceable hitter with plus defense. Connor Wong will probably be the backup, but I would like to see them bring in someone to take over that role.
7) Is this the year Triston Casas becomes Lou Gehrig?
Remember that comment about glaring needs? At the risk of pissing off the Casas Army, first base is one of them. First off, his last 2 seasons have been marred by injury, including a gruesome knee injury at the start of last year. I don’t even know if a player can recover from that. Secondly, except for a great half season at the end of 2023, he has not been the slugger that everyone thought he could be. Add to that his lack of athleticism and poor defense at first base and this is definitely an area of need for the Red Sox. I sincerely hope they bring in a slugging first baseman as I don’t think I can stomach the Casas experiment for another year.
8) What will the middle infield look like?
Craig Breslow already spilled the beans that Trevor Story will be the starting shortstop for 2026. I think he’s better suited as a 2B and you let Marcelo Mayer compete for the SS position, but whatever. So, does that mean that Mayer plays 2B? If they don’t sign a 3B Mayer may need to play there. The other options are less than ideal. Do you want Romy Gonzalez, Kristian Campbell, Vaughn Grisson, David Hamilton, or Ceddanne Rafaela as your everyday 2B? I sure don’t, unless Kristian Campbell figures it out and surprises us this year. Otherwise, you go get Bo Bichette, but there are way too many other needs to address first, namely the corner infielders.
9) Can the bullpen maintain its top 3 ranking?
I think it’s common knowledge that bullpens as a whole are crapshoots every year. Sure, you have your studs, but filling out an 8-man bullpen is fraught with danger. The Red Sox are solid at the back end, but I will admit that I am a little concerned about Garrett Whitlock playing in the World Baseball Classic. Given his injury history, the last thing we need is for him to tweak something. Justin Slaten should fill out the back 3, but the middle is always the problem. Brennan Bernardino was a solid option, but he’s gone. Justin Wilson is a free agent. Greg Weissert is a heart attack machine. There are a bunch of guys (including starters) that may compete for the pen.
10) Who will fill out the rotation?
Brayan Bello turned in a solid 2025, but he is more of a #3 or #4 starter than a solid #2. That is obviously what the Red Sox need to go get. With Giolito gone, the remaining spots will be a competition between mostly young pitchers, with Houck out for most of the year. Kutter Crawford, Hunter Dobbins, Cooper Criswell, Payton Tolle, Richard Fitts, Connelly Early, and Kyle Harrison will compete for the remaining 2 or 3 spots. It will probably come down to who has the best spring.
Now that the Hot Stove season is off and running, we eagerly await the glorious moves that will be made by Craig Breslow. Power bats and top of the rotation starters galore. While those will be icing on the cake, it will be the core of the team that will determine whether this is a championship caliber team in 2026.