Revisiting Isolated Power
What options are left for Breslow to add a power bat?
Back in August, I discussed the sabermetric statistic Isolated Power (ISO), which is simply slugging percentage minus batting average. Is it a measure of a hitter’s ability to hit doubles, triples, and home runs.
The categories for this statistic are as follows:
Premier power hitter: .250 or above
Consistent power hitter: .200 - .250
Above average power hitter: .170 - .200
Average power hitter: .140 - .170
Limited power hitter: below .140
The following table shows the top 12 leaders in ISO for 2025, all finishing in the premier power hitter category. I also listed members of the current Red Sox and other hitters that were either free agents or rumored to be Red Sox trade targets. The ranks are among qualified MLB hitters. A * denotes that player was not qualified.
All but 2 free agents (Suarez and Bellinger) have signed with other teams. The Red Sox reportedly made a 5 year, $165M offer to Alex Bregman (an above average power hitter). Alonso signed with the Orioles for 5 years, $155M and Schwarber signed with the Phillies for 5 years, $150M. So, this indicates that the Red Sox valued Bregman higher than they did for two legitimate elite power hitters. This coming after Craig Breslow publicly stated that he wanted to add two “big bats.” Curious.
The Red Sox top power hitter, Wilyer Abreu, fell into the consistent power range. Abreu has shown his power over the last couple of seasons, but his injuries and streakiness has kept him from being the elite power hitter that we had hoped. Health, consistency, and hitting left-handed pitching better could vault him into the elite category, but that’s a big ask.
Willson Contreras is the lone bat they have added this year, and his power numbers fall right in line with Alex Bregman and Jarren Duran, above average at best.
The top rumored Red Sox trade targets are Ketel Marte, Isaac Paredes, Fernando Tatis, Brendan Donovan, and Alec Bohm. In terms of power, Marte is the best of the bunch, a consistent 30 home run, .500 slugging percentage threat. Paredes has 20 home run power, and a career SLG of .429. Tatis had a down year last year. His career ISO is .237, but most of that power came in his first 3 seasons, before his PED suspension. His power numbers have been down ever since. Even so, Marte or Tatis would be a great acquisition by the Red Sox, but the chances of those trades happening are pretty slim.
That brings us to the player who is clearly the best remaining power hitter on the market, Eugenio Suarez. There are a lot of red flags with this player. His defense is sub-par (-46 career DRS), which is not good for a team that led the league in errors, and is particularly bad in terms of infield defense. He had a 30% strikeout rate last season, which is considered very high. It was “only” 27% during the first part of the season when he was a Diamondback but ballooned to 36% during his stint with the Mariners.
Lastly, he is projected to get a 3 year, $63M contract ($21M AAV). The Red Sox are currently about $5M over the second CBT threshold, which we know John Henry wants to avoid. This would actually put them over the third CBT threshold, which should be a piece of cake for a team that makes the amount of money the Red Sox do, but we all know it doesn’t work that way with FSG.
So, my conclusion? I think Suarez is the play, given all of his faults and financial restrictions. Why? He will hit home runs at Fenway Park. Lots of them. He will also strike out a lot and make many errors. Plus, he will be very expensive. I also like Marte and Paredes but what are the chances Breslow can pull those trades off? Even so, neither of them is anywhere near the power hitter that Suarez is. The Red Sox need power. Desperately. This may be their last chance to get it.