Playoff Probabilities
How quickly things change in Rob Manfred's MLB
It's getting to be that time of the season when all the baseball mathematicians crunch their numbers. The Red Sox have 46 games left in the season and are 12 games over .500 with a record of 64-52. They currently hold the first wild card spot and are 2.5 games ahead of the Mariners. It wasn't so long ago that playoffs weren't even a thought.
On June 27 (by all accounts a great day in American history), the Red Sox were 40-43. At that time, according to FanGraphs, their playoff probability was 13%. The Yankees were at 96.2%, the Rays 75.7%, and the Mariners 59.5%. They must have been inspired by Rico Petrocelli's birthday because starting the next day the Red Sox went on a 24-9 run. Their playoff probability now sits at 75.3%. Interestingly enough the Yankees and Mariners still have high probabilities at 83.1% and 84.4% respectively. The next closest team is the Rangers at 35.4% and falling.
Does this mean the Rangers, Guardians, Royals, and Rays are out beyond a shadow of a doubt? Do the Red Sox have a playoff spot locked up? No, but as Yogi Berra once said, it's getting late early. Let's use 90 wins as a lock for a playoff spot. The Red Sox would have to go 26-20 to achieve that number, a .565 winning percentage. The Mariners would need to go .596, the Yankees .617, and the Rangers .652 to achieve 90 wins. Does anybody think those 3 teams could keep up that pace? Even if you set the bar lower, say 87 wins, the Red Sox would only need to play .500 ball to achieve that number.
I think the Red Sox will continue to play well enough to grab a playoff spot, however it does matter which spot they take. Only the first wild card gets to host a playoff series and given how well the Red Sox have played at home, that would be crucial for them. All three games of the best 2 out of 3 wild card round would be at Fenway Park, probably against either the Yankees, Mariners, or Rangers.
The Red Sox have no games left against either the Mariners or Rangers, and 7 games left against the Yankees. Those 4 games at Yankee Stadium and 3 games at Fenway will be must-see TV. Nothing makes a Red Sox fan happier than burying the Yankees. It wasn't always that way, but that's a future article (check back around August 20). In the meantime, they need to keep having strong starts, good relief pitching, and consistent hitting up and down the lineup. Now that the core of this team is locked up for years to come, LET'S GO!