Juan Soto: Yankees or Giants the favorites to sign the pending free agent?
The Bastards of Boston Baseball podcasters do a deep dive into current Yankees slugger Juan Soto's path through free agency this coming winter!
CODY PAULSEN:
Soto has to sign with the Yankess this offseaon, and it will be to a market resetting type deal.
He has them over a barrel, a 25 year old, power hitting lefty, in Yankee stadium is
a dream come true for their roster construction and a nightmare to everyone else.
I know it's early in the season, but Soto is leading the league in BA, top three in OPS, walks a ton, and plays good outfield defense. He has done nothing but what he was expected to do.
Yankees fans are restless and if the Yankees front office let Soto walk, especially after this robust season he is having, while protecting their right handed future first ballot hall of famer (Judge), there will be a mutuny.
Talk within the industry is that the Yankees are no longer the Yankess with how they have built their team and managed their roster. But if they let Soto leave they will offically no longer be 'The Yankees'.
JEREMY SCHILLING:
Juan Soto is going to stay with the New York Yankees. Hal Steinbrenner said in May that the Yankees will be lowering payroll. This was clearly a direct shot at Soto's agent, the famed Scott Boras. As such, I do not take it as anything else. The Yankees invested the prospect talent to acquire Soto, so making no effort to re-sign him just does not make sense to me.
I believe the Yankees will be competitive in the free agent market and retain the player. The issue for MLB clubs that have been in a similar situation in the past is that it only takes one dumb team to disrupt the market.
The Dodgers cannot possibly spend on another $300+ million dollar player. Even if they defer money as they did with Ohtani, it just seems like enough is enough with high end spending. To a lesser extent, the Phillies are in the same boat.
The problem with both organizations from a Yankees perspective, is that both ownership groups are completely committed to winning, including spending the money necessary to stay a competitor.
The Mets traditionally have been dumb enough to spend recklessly, but I do not see it in this case.
The question is: Is there one dumb team that we cannot foresee popping up, but swooping in and over-spending to get the player?
The big issue for Soto and the Yankees is the comparison to Ohtani's deal. However, Soto's camp is going to come to the realization that Ohtani is a once in a lifetime talent as both a two-way player. Once in a lifetime might be underselling it given that Babe Ruth was the last time MLB saw a player that was elite at both traits.
Regardless Ohtani's deal, including the amount of deferred money, needs to be set aside if they are going to strike a deal.
JASON KELLY:
When it comes to projecting Juan Soto’s 2025 destination the key factors will be two things: Money and championship aspirations.
Soto will likely command a deal upwards of $400+ million and if he continues on his current 2024 pace it could very well extend beyond that number.
In my mind, Soto’s options boil down to less than a handful of teams. Specifically, I believe the New York Mets, Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, and San Francisco Giants are the most likely players for Soto’s services next season and beyond. All four of these teams have the money to spend, along with powerful front offices willing to do so.
That is why I have the San Francisco Giants as the big prize winners this coming winter and landing a deal for Juan Soto.
The Giants strike me as a team that is sick and tired of seeing the Dodgers get all the attention and praise from the MLB community. They have pursued several superstars in the past several years such as Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, and most recently, Shohei Ohtani. It’s a franchise that is willing, able, and determined to spend in order to reposition themselves as the face of the National League West. Signing Juan Soto would do exactly that.
CHARLIE SMITH:
Ultimately I think that Juan Soto will find a way to stay in New York. While the Yankees don’t have the youngest team, they do have incredible young talent that is all trending upwards. As well as the fact they have a 43-19 record, which is good for a .694 winning percentage to go along with the best record in the MLB.
Anthony Volpe has been incredible, and their pitching staff have found a way to turn back the clock to find a new elite level.
Soto and Judge form one of the biggest 1-2 punches in baseball. They are quite possibly the Bombers best 1-2 since Lou Gehrig and Joe DiMaggio. In theory, they could very well surpass the legendary numbers already set forth by the latter.
Think about this for a moment:
Taking a sample of DiMaggio’s 11 year window 1937 - 1948 (including 3 years of military service time) and Mickey Mantle’s sample of his best eight years, 1955 - 1962, the two clubbed 604 home runs.
If we begin Judge’s 2022 season through now, his 120 home runs combined with Soto’s 17 so far during his first season in Pinstripes, each slugger totals out at 137. Within this same window, Judge has played around two seasons and Soto just 60 games. Simply put, in less than seven years, both players could surpass two of the most legendary ballplayers that ever played this game.
It makes no sense to want to leave a franchise who worships his generational talent for this game. Not to mention the left handed hitting paradise of a ballpark that was essentially built for him.
Soto will want to be on a contender and playing for the Yankees for the duration of his career might offer him the best chance to contend and win multiple titles.
TERRY CUSHMAN JR:
In 2022, Juan Soto rejected a record (at the time) 15 year, $440 million contract from the Washington Nationals.
Working in the Yankees favor is the fact we live in a different world now. Teams are more reluctant than ever to dole out those massive deals, including big market teams.
The Mike Trout contract is officially in the bust category. The same can’t YET be said about the Mookie Betts contract, but it’s been far less impactful than many expected. Especially with only one trip to the World Series.
If the Dodgers are their typically underwhelming selves in the playoffs this coming October, with that freshly signed $700M Ohtani contract, how will this affect Soto’s market?
The biggest threat to the Yankees is the San Francisco Giants. They made aggressive moves for both Judge and Ohtani. Undoubtedly they are sick of watching both of their division rivals, the Dodgers and Padres land all the big fish.
The Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, and perhaps even his former Washington Nationals team will lurk around the peripheral.
More than anything, the Yankees need their Dominican superstar to fall in love with New York. Outside of the Dodgers and Red Sox, there is nothing romantic about any other MLB franchise.
Aaron Judge left $40M on the table with the San Diego Padres in order to return to New York. That decision made his bank account slightly less wealthy. But his legacy as one of the greatest to ever play the game will be far more filthy stinking rich.
Robinson Cano was a Yankees superstar. Once a free agent, he took the money from the Mariners and his career lost all relevance.
The Yankees will have to exceed their financial comfort zone to some degree. But the answer for Juan Soto will always be New York.
The contract will be a massive one. But will likely end up lower than what many insiders expect.