Home Stretch: What Does the Rotation Look Like Heading into the Playoffs?
Decisions remain on who starts when
Point: Manage your rotation at the end of the season so as to have Garrett Crochet start the first game of the Wild Card round. The first playoff game is arguably the most important game of the postseason. If you win game one, then all you need is Bello or Giolito to win one game to win the round and advance.
Counterpoint: It doesn't matter whether Crochet starts game one or game two. Bello can make an effective start in game one. The Yankees (the Red Sox expected opponent) will probably also be fighting for seeding at the end of the season and there is no guarantee that Max Fried will be available for game one.
Starting Friday, the Red Sox have 15 games remaining. Add 3 off days and that will take you to September 30, the first game of the Wild Card round. The Red Sox starters are currently operating on 5 days rest. This is typical for the end of the season, but normal rest is 4 days during the season. Giolito, Bello, and Crochet will have 3 more starts to finish the regular season.
If the Red Sox follow the normal 5-man rotation for the rest of the season, Crochet would be scheduled to start game 2 of the Wild Card round on 4 days rest. Assuming you want Bello to start game 1, he would also be on 4 days rest.
If you want to ensure Crochet pitches game one of the Wild Card round, you can make one small change. You pitch him on 4 days rest in his final start which would be the final game of the Blue Jays series. That would put him in line to pitch game one of the Wild Card round.
Obviously, at this point in the season, there is some concern about Crochet's workload. This may cause Bailey or Cora to keep him on 5 days rest, but you can't do that in the playoffs. If you want to maximize your ace's starts, he will need to pitch on 4 days rest.
One last option: skip Crochet's last start. Let's say you enter the Detroit series with the first Wild Card spot wrapped up and there is no need to start Crochet. If you skip him, that would give him 9 days rest before the first Wild Card game. Sounds great, however, some pitchers don't react well to long rest, so the alternative could be to pitch him for only 2-3 innings just to keep him from getting rusty.
Of course, this is all long-range planning and subject to change. Cora and Bailey will evaluate the situation in late September when they know more about how the playoff race is going. Whether or not you believe Crochet should start the first game of the playoffs, keeping him healthy is the main concern. He and the other starters need to be rested and in top form once the playoffs start.