Consistently Inconsistent: The Story of the 2025 Red Sox Offense

Somehow, they make it work, but for how long?

I suppose you could say the same thing about the starters and relievers as well, but for some reason this team was 14 games over .500 at the end of August and firmly in control of a wild card spot. This speaks to a few things. First, the quality of teams in the American League. Except for the Tigers, no team has taken charge of their division. A team will build a lead over a stretch of games, then lose it in the next stretch. The AL East is there for the taking for 3 teams, the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Red Sox. Also, when some players go cold, other players get hot. This has provided enough offense to win games. However, two things happened Tuesday night to cause great concern.

First, Garrett Crochet got lit up like a Christmas tree, allowing 7 earned runs and 4 homers. He has not been sharp in his last few starts, but most wrote it off to him just not having his "A" stuff. I think it's time to have a conversation about his innings, currently 32 innings more than he has ever pitched in a season, and he has at least another 4 starts to go. He will be 50+ innings over his previous high even before the playoffs start. That's not ideal.

But this is a story about the offense, so we'll table that for now. The second thing that happened was Roman Anthony's oblique injury. We don't yet know how severe it is, but obliques tend to take a long time to heal. He could miss significant time. For at least the last month, Anthony has been the team's best hitter.

The Numbers (OPS)

The Red Sox led off the season with hot starts from Narvaez, Campbell, Bregman, Abreu, and (eventually) Devers. Even so, thru June, they were only 2 games under .500. In July, Story, Rafaela, and Duran got hot, and Roman Anthony emerged as a big-league hitter. To me, this was the turning point of the season. Anthony is a catalyst for the offense, with an OBP around .400. He gets on base a lot. With his excellent baserunning skills and with Bregman, Duran, and Story behind him, he scores a lot of runs as well.

The Platoon Empire

Like it or not, Alex Cora's usage of Romy Gonzalez and Rob Refsnyder is a big reason for the Red Sox success this year. In 2024, the Red Sox record against left-handed starters was 17-26. This year so far, it's 23-17. That's a 15-game swing. Romy and Ref are a huge part of that. Romy has a .994 OPS and Ref has a .950 OPS against lefties. Both numbers are well above their career averages, so the question emerges: Is this sustainable?

Challenges

The Red Sox are essentially getting nothing from the catcher, first base, and DH position (although Nate Lowe may change that), but you can't expect to have a strong offense when 3 positions in your lineup are black holes. Bregman, Duran, and Rafaela's recent fall offs have also been concerning. Abreu is hurt with no definite return date and as mentioned above, we don't know what will happen with Anthony.

The Red Sox insist on running Yoshida out there at DH and have paid the price (literally). The assumption is that the front office is dictating that a guy who makes 18 million dollars needs to play most every day. That's unfortunate and is still a big stain on Chaim Bloom's tenure as CBO. Playoff teams need mashers at DH. They won't be able to solve that problem this year, but it should be a priority in the offseason.

Ceddanne Rafaela needs to step it up. He showed us what he can do in July. He needs to be that guy again. Soon. Duran has been hot and cold, currently cold. Bregman needs to return to his early season form. Wilyer Abreu is good when he plays but is starting to have an injury history. Right now, Story is their most consistent everyday performer, with Romy and Refsnyder against lefties.

Bottom Line

The Roman Anthony injury may send ripple effects through the team, especially if Abreu doesn't return soon. The team should make it through the rest of the season and take a wild card berth. The goal would be to make sure Anthony is ready for the playoffs. Don't rush him back too quickly. This team's hot and cold streaks have not been in sync all year long but imagine if everyone got hot at the same time. That time needs to be late September if they want to have a chance to do damage in the playoffs.