Can Roman Anthony Win the AL Rookie of the Year?
It might be more likely than you think
Fifty years ago, another Red Sox #19 won not only the AL Rookie of the Year award but the MVP as well. While that's not on the table for Roman Anthony, I think the ROY award is definitely achievable. He doesn't yet have the power of a Nick Kurtz, but he has shown tremendous baseball IQ.
His defense has been good. His baserunning is excellent. He has scored from first base on a number of occasions. That means he can read balls off the bat very well. He looks to have gap power and can hit to left center. This is important for a lefty hitter in Fenway. The greatest to ever do it (Williams, Yaz, Lynn, Ortiz) could hit drives to the opposite field and off the Monster regularly.
By far his most impressive skills to date are his plate patience and pitch recognition. He has 25 walks in only 177 plate appearances, a 14.1 walk rate which would make him 9th in MLB if he had enough PAs to qualify. His OBP is .401 which would put him third in MLB. As it stands, he will probably not get enough PAs to qualify this year since he was brought up so late. When he does hit the ball, he mashes it. He has a hard-hit rate of 59.2%, second only to Kyle Schwarber and slightly above Shohei Ohtani for qualified hitters.
The bottom line is this kid is going to be a star and maybe a superstar, but will he be able to put up the numbers to win the ROY award? According to the sports books, Nick Kurtz is the favorite, followed by Jacob Wilson and Cam Smith. Anthony is fourth and Carlos Narvaez is fifth. Jacob Wilson will be out for at least a month, and maybe the year. Take him out of the running. Cam Smith is a 2.0 WAR player slashing .258/.329/.386/.715. Fairly pedestrian numbers compared to Anthony. The real threat is Nick Kurtz.
Nick Kurtz has been mashing the ball for the Athletics. He has 23 home runs and 59 RBIs while slashing .302/.376/.663/1.039. His power is impressive, and we all know that voters love the long ball. That is probably the key advantage he has over Roman. For Anthony to be in the conversation he will need to start hitting the ball out of the ballpark. Frankly, I'm totally fine if he just keeps taking walks and hitting singles and doubles. Stay within yourself and the power will come.
Before Roman Anthony was brought up, I speculated that the Red Sox were manipulating his service time in order to gain a seventh year of control.
Are the Red Sox Manipulating Roman Anthony's Service Time?
The caveat there is that if he finishes in the top 2 for ROY, he automatically gains a year of service time, and the seventh year of control is null and void. This may be a moot point since the Red Sox will probably give him a long-term contract thru his arbitration years. The problem here is that his price is going up with every passing day. The Red Sox have already lost their chance to get a team friendly deal, if there ever was one. A huge second half and good ROY finish will mean they will have to go deeper into their pockets, and we know how much John Henry loves to do that.
I am excited to see what Roman can do for the rest of the year. He is poised to be the Red Sox best hitter for years to come. The Red Sox need to not overthink this and just sign him.