A Walk Thru the Halftime Numbers
Yes, it's as bad as you imagine
The Red Sox are 40-42 at essentially the halfway point of the season. There have been some good stretches, but many more bad stretches. They went 17-15 in March/April, 11-17 in May, and 12-10 so far in June. They have winning streaks of 6 and 5, and losing streaks of 5 twice, including the current one. The team can't seem to get out of its own way and there are many reasons for that. Let's take a look at the numbers.
Hitting
Most believe that they are pretty good offensively and if you look at some of the basic numbers, you might agree with that. MLB rankings to date:
Runs per Game - 9th
Slugging Percentage - 7th
OPS - 7th
OBP - 15th
Strikeouts - 28th
The OBP is middle of the pack. Combine that with a strikeout ranking of 28th and that tells you that they don't get on base enough and strike out way too much. But anyone with eyes knows that. Let's look at situational hitting:
Bases empty OPS - 6th (not bad right?)
Runners in scoring position (RISP) OPS - 22nd
RISP Strikeouts - 30th (dead last)
RISP 2-out OPS - 26th
RISP 2-out Strikeouts - 30th
So, they are 28th in strikeouts overall and dead last in strikeouts with RISP. Situational hitting is a problem. Again, you know that if you have eyes. The best teams do it well, the Red Sox don't.
Pitching
Staff ERA - 18th
Starter ERA - 23rd
Bullpen ERA - 9th
WHIP - 21st
Strikeouts - 8th
Starter ERA by month:
Mar/Apr - 4.02
May - 4.39
June - 4.59
Going in the wrong direction. Even though Crochet has been good all year and Bello and Giolito have been better lately, there have still been some really awful starts, mostly by Buehler and Houck. Fitts and Dobbins have been OK, but inconsistent.
Bullpen ERA by month:
Mar/Apr - 4.05
May - 3.23
June - 3.12
The pen has shown improvement, but the problem is their leads have been so small in the late innings it seems like they always give up just enough runs to lose. They are in a tough situation. Way overworked and no run support. That's a recipe for disaster. These numbers could get very bad very quickly.
Defense
Need I say more?
Errors - 30th
Defensive Efficiency - 26th
Defensive Runs Saved - 6th
Now I'll be the first to tell you that I have no clue what any of the advanced fielding metrics mean so the DRS number is puzzling. I'll just go with the eye test. Their defense is putrid. The standard Red Sox Twitter excuse is "Cora shouldn't have to teach them how to play defense at the major league level." Bullshit. Managers who refuse to be coaches and teachers are bad managers. Period.
Is There Hope?
The next four weeks will be very interesting. Because the American League is so bad, the Red Sox are only 2.5 games out of the third wildcard spot. If this continues closer to the trade deadline, Craig Breslow really won't have a choice. He can't be seen as giving up with a chance to make the playoffs, can he? I'll keep my take to myself right now but suffice to say I really don't have any confidence in the man regardless of what he decides to do. Buy or Sell, he will find a way to screw it up. How do they really fix this thing? Stay tuned.