A Tale of Two Halves

Are the Red Sox becoming the team we expected them to be?

The Red Sox were 40-41 at the halfway point of the season and going nowhere. Since then, they've gone 13-4. Ceddanne Rafaela has become the hottest hitter on the planet. The rest of the lineup has stepped up. The pitching has been outstanding. What led to this?

Several things happened leading up to the mid-point of the season. Marcelo Mayer was called up at game 54. Roman Anthony was called up at game 68. Raffy Devers was traded after game 73. Kristian Campbell was sent down after game 76. These look like disparate events, but they may have finally solidified a team of rookies, second year players, and veterans into a cohesive unit capable of making a playoff run.

First The Numbers

A simple look at OPS tells you everything you need to know about the offense. The team has been on fire offensively since game 81 led by the white-hot Rafaela. Six players have an OPS over .900 during that 17-game stretch. That's scorching. Mayer and Anthony's numbers might not blow you away right now, but Mayer has shown great defensive ability and Anthony's plate discipline is second to none. I wouldn't be surprised if they both entered the Rookie of the Year conversation in the second half.

The pitching has continued to improve. Crochet had a couple of rough starts then pitched a complete game shutout on Saturday. Bello is having the breakout season we've been waiting for. The real turnaround, however, belongs to Lucas Giolito. He had a 6.42 ERA in his first 7 starts, then allowed only 3 earned runs in his next 6 starts, good for a 0.70 ERA. Overall, starting pitching has been more consistent and gone deeper into games. This also helps the bullpen. In the last 10 games before the break (all wins), the bullpen ERA is 1.57, including a 7 1/3 inning gem on July 11th when Dobbins went down in the second inning.

Challenges

The Red Sox currently hold the second wild card spot. They have three very tough series vs the Cubs, Phillies, and Dodgers post All Star break. Even if they do poorly during that stretch, there is no doubt that they should be buyers at the deadline. Craig Breslow has the responsibility to add key players to this team: a right-handed 1B/DH bat, a backup catcher, a starter, and a bullpen arm are the key targets. Given the high demand across MLB, he probably won't get them all but it's important that he acquires quality players. I don't want to see castoffs or bottom of the barrel players like we got last year. This team is too talented for that.

Right now, the top four teams in the AL East are in the wild card hunt. In the second half the Red Sox have four series against those teams for a total of 13 games. Those games will likely determine who takes home wild card spots. Seattle is currently the only other team in the wild card hunt with a winning record. It's all right there for the taking.

Respect the Streak

According to Crash Davis, when you're on a heater, don't do anything to disrupt it. Unfortunately, the Red Sox are tinkering with their lineup. With six outfielders on the roster, Anthony, Rafaela, Duran, or Abreu will probably sit every night. Don't like that. Rafaela and Mayer will probably both see starts (possibly platoon?) at second base. Don't like that either. Why mess with something when it's working?

"Is this real life?" is the question. Honestly, I don't think they'll go back to being the stumbling, bumbling team of the first half. The young players have made significant strides, but young players are traditionally inconsistent. The veterans who have been hot are historically streaky players as well. The rotation now has three reliable starters that hopefully will not revert to their first half troubles. Given all of that, I still think this team grabs a playoff spot, helped by the historic weakness of the American League. Who are we to look a gift horse in the mouth? Whatever happens, it's going to be fun couple of months.