A Deep Dive into the MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agent Hitters
"If you're always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent" -Andrew Friedman
MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) does a great job of not only breaking down the top 50 free agents but also making predictions about where they might sign and potential contract structure. There has been some great discussion around this on the BoB podcast in recent days.
There are 20 hitters in the top 50. Three of them, Gleyber Torres, Josh Naylor, and Trent Grisham have already signed with their clubs. Two of them are Japanese players. Even though they are a consideration, I’m not going to compare Japanese League stats to MLB stats. We’ve seen how unreliable that comparison can be. So, that leaves 15 players.
Besides 2025 performance and projected contract terms, I also considered these factors:
1) Performance against left-handed pitching in 2025
Everyone considers the Red Sox lineup to be too left-handed, but the real issue is that some of their LH hitters can’t hit left-handed pitching well. We talk about the Platoon Dynasty and the reason for that is players such as Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida, Marcelo Mayer, and even Jarren Duran have struggled against LHP. So, I’m not so much focused on bringing in a righty bat as I am focused on how that batter hits LHP. For historical comparison, some of the best Red Sox lefties against LHP all time are Ted Williams (.926), Mo Vaughn (.907), and David Ortiz (.820). Some of the lefties on this list perform at that level.
2) Career performance at Fenway Park
Signing a hitter that mashes at Fenway is not necessarily a prerequisite, but wouldn’t it be nice to find a guy who does tear it up at Fenway? Going into 2025, Alex Bregman was one of the best Fenway performers ever with a 1.046 OPS. He only produced .761 last year, which was fairly disappointing. The best ever Red Sox at Fenway are Ted Williams (1.148), Fred Lynn (1.031), Manny Ramirez (1.037), and David Ortiz (1.000). There are some on this list that have done very well at the Cathedral of Boston.
3) Career performance with runners in scoring position
Situational hitting was one of the deficiencies of the 2025 Red Sox. They were bottom third in batting average with RISP and dead last in strikeouts with RISP. Even though BA with RISP is the most quoted statistic, I like to look at OPS with RISP because a hit isn’t the only good outcome with RISP. A walk, hit-by-pitch, or sacrifice fly is also a good outcome. At any rate, whoever they sign needs to raise the bar in this area. Again, from a historical perspective, some of the best ever Red Sox in this area were Ted Williams (1.125), Manny Ramirez (1.087), Mo Vaughn (1.007), and Fred Lynn (.990).
4) Career defensive performance
The Red Sox were dead last in errors and bottom third in most other defensive metrics, which is strange since they had two gold gloves in the outfield and a good defensive catcher. The infield defense was bad, and there is also room for improvement in left field. If they are signing a big bat, they need to be careful that it doesn’t make the defense worse.
The Numbers
Right off the top, Kyle Tucker grabs your attention. He’s got great numbers, hits LHP well, has hit well in his limited games at Fenway, is a good situational hitter, and plays good defense. Of course, he’s also going to command a King’s ransom, but if you sign him, Duran and/or Abreu could be used as trade chips to get starting pitching. It’s an exciting thought, but sadly John Henry has got many more important ways to spend $400M.
Bo Bichette and Alex Bregman also check most of the boxes. We know what we are getting with Bregman, and there are some concerns about injuries at this point in his career. He started off 2025 like gangbusters, slashing .299/.385/.553/.938 but after returning from injury, he was a much different player, slashing .250/.338/.386/.724. Bichette is younger and had a solid year at the plate but is not quite as good a defender. Even so, he might be the better play here to fill the hole in the infield.
Now we come to two guys that some Red Sox followers are not considering because they are lefties, Cody Bellinger and Kyle Schwarber. In reality, they both mash lefties. Schwarber has also mashed at Fenway and has good RISP numbers. His poor defensive numbers are entirely a result of playing in the outfield. He has only played 11 games at 1B, so it’s possible he could play there, but he would obviously be a perfect DH. I think Bellinger could be a poor man’s Kyle Tucker, and a lot more affordable. He also upgrades outfield defense.
Pete Alonso is the guy every fan wants, and it would be a good signing, but I was surprised at how poorly he hit LHP in 2025. His career OPS against LHP is higher (.835) so last year could either be an anomaly or the start of a trend. His RISP numbers are terrific, and his defense is just slightly below average. For $110M, I don’t think you can go wrong with this guy.
Eugenio Suarez is someone I wanted until I looked at his numbers. He’s a power hitter no doubt and has mashed in his 10 games at Fenway. He is somewhat of a liability at 3B, and his hitting against LHP was not good in 2025, although his career against LHP is .824, but trending in the wrong direction. His performance was way down after being traded to Seattle last year. I don’t think I’m in on him anymore.
Jorge Polanco is someone you sign if you miss out on the players above him. If we get to that point, things are not good, but he’s serviceable. J.T. Realmuto would be a good second catcher to Carlos Narvaez and it wouldn’t cost much to sign him. I would love to upgrade from Connor Wong. It should be low risk. Ryan O’Hearn is intriguing as a DH but again, you only sign him if the others on the list don’t pan out. I hope we aren’t in that situation.
It’s the same thing with the rest on this list. The 2026 Red Sox need to add premium players. The top 6 hitters on this list are premium players. One or even two of these guys should be in Craig Breslow’s sights. He must heed Andrew Friedman’s warning. There are no perfect players. Point and shoot. Money should not be a limiting factor. Make the deals!