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Willson Contreras is the lone bright spot in the Red Sox offense in 2026. He is currently the only player on the team with an OPS over .800 (.934). That OPS is good enough for sixth in qualified hitters in MLB. His .394 OBP is 12^th and his .540 SLG is 13^th. He is having a fantastic year. Surprisingly he only has 8 doubles, but we won’t nitpick. His 13 home runs lead the team, and Jarren Duran is the only other player in double digits.

Red Sox Nation hasn’t really had a star first baseman in a while. Willson has only played 60 games for the Sox, so it might be a bit early for a comparison, but I am going to assume the rest of the season goes about the same for him. So, who have been the best Red Sox first basemen in recent years?

There was the fascination with Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas in the 2020s. They were going to be the next great first base sluggers, but injury and poor play took them both out of the equation. Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce had a couple of nice years for the Sox, including 2018 when they platooned the team to a championship, and Pearce was the World Series MVP.

In the earlier part of the decade, Mike Napoli, Adrian Gonzalez, and Kevin Youkilis manned the 1B bag, and all three were good players. Napoli and Youk won titles, but my biggest disappointment was in Gonzalez. He had some great seasons with the Rangers and Padres and Theo brought him over prior to that fateful 2011 season. They had just let Adrian Beltre go, and Youk moved back to 3B. Adrian had a great season, hitting 27 home runs with a .957 OPS. We know how that season ended, and in 2012 he was shipped off to the Dodgers after clashing with that disaster of a manager, Bobby Valentine. I still believe that he could have been a very good player with the Red Sox. He had that inside out swing from the left side that all great Fenway hitters have, and his numbers are good enough to put him in the running.

In the late 90s and early 2000s, Kevin Millar and Brian Daubach were solid 1Bs, but none of these aforementioned players were any match for the man that had the 1B bag for most of the 1990s. First a look at the numbers. These are hitting stats in games played at 1B only with a minimum of 200 games played at that position.

You see some old familiar names here. Obviously, Jimmie Foxx is the greatest Red Sox 1B ever, but unless you are 84+ years old you never saw him play. After Carl Yastrzemski’s superstar years in LF, he shifted to 1B full time in the 70s and still had a great career there. Adrian, Youk, Daubach, Millar, and Moreland are honorable mentions, but the winner is…

Mo Vaughn. Mo won the MVP in 1995 and received MVP votes in 5 additional seasons. He was a wrecking machine from 1993 to 1998, surpassing the 40-home run mark twice. Unfortunately, Mo was a bit of a bad boy, with DUIs and arrests for altercations. GM Dan Duquette also had to prioritize signing Pedro Martinez to an extension in that 1998-99 offseason. Duquette was critical of Vaughn’s attitude, weight, and general demeanor, so the Angels swooped in and signed him to a 6 year, $80M contract, $20M more than the Red Sox were offering.

It’s a shame that Vaughn left the Red Sox, but his first couple of years in LA were not up to his previous standards. He was one of the great hitters at Fenway Park, and I’m sure that affected his numbers at neutral Angel Stadium.

So, my position is that Willson Contreras is the best Red Sox first baseman since Mo Vaughn. His combination of plate patience, power, and good defense has made him a fan favorite. Will he play an entire season for the Red Sox? If they sell, Contreras will be a hot commodity. If he stays, he is under contract through 2027 with a 2028 club option. 2027 will be a wildcard year and possibly a lost season, but Willson Contreras could be a key piece for the next CBO to build a championship roster.

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The Red Sox just lost another game at Fenway Park, and their 2026 home record is now 9-20. It’s all everyone is talking about and for good reason. The Sox have an all-time winning percentage of .567 at Fenway, which is very good. Only the Yankees (.613), Giants (.580), and Dodgers (.572) have better all-time home winning percentages. Fenway is one of the great home field advantages in sports.

Fenway has been a hitter’s park for as long as most of us can remember. Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Rice, Mo, Nomar, Manny, and Papi all mashed there. The beloved Citgo sign is the backdrop of home runs over the Green Monster (310 to left), but maybe it’s fitting that it’s being taken down and rebuilt this year. Left-handed hitters deposit home runs in the bullpen, which was built in 1940 to help Ted Williams hit more homers. There have been homers curled around the Pesky Pole (302 to right). The Monster is speckled with marks from “wall ball doubles.” It’s just a great place to hit.

I went back to 1969 (the year the mound was lowered to benefit hitters) and looked at the Red Sox performance at Fenway over the last 58 seasons. What does the data tell us about the 2026 Red Sox? It must be a total team failure, right? Well, not really. In the 57 seasons prior to 2026, the Red Sox ERA at Fenway is 4.18, a fairly high number but you must remember that Fenway is a hitter’s park for the opponents as well. In 2026, the staff ERA at Fenway is 3.72, good for 9^th best in that 58-year span:

So yes as expected, it is the offense that is causing the Red Sox problems at home. Year after year, you could count on the Red Sox to score 5 runs per game at home. They have scored a full two runs less than that in 2026. That is a massive difference. Not surprisingly, the 2026 power numbers are the worst you can imagine. They are slugging 100 points lower and almost half a home run per game less than in the previous 57 years.

Again, this is not surprising. Craig Breslow’s failed attempts at acquiring a power hitter over the winter were punctuated by a Pete Alonso drive into the Monster seats last night. Alonso and Kyle Schwarber would have been superstars with the Red Sox, and their contracts were actually less than Breslow offered Alex Bregman. All the Red Sox GMs of the recent past such as Haywood Sullivan, Lou Gorman, Dan Duquette, Theo, Ben, and Dave knew the importance of tailoring an offense to Fenway Park. It’s really a no-brainer. It’s the easy button.

My suggestion to John Henry would be to take a lesson from the keepers of the Citgo sign. It’s time to tear it down and rebuild from the ground up. Stop relying on analytics and Driveline. Find players that can hit the ball out of the ballpark.

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The Red Sox are now 23-33, 10 games under .500 after playing 56 games, just past the one third mark of the season. Yes, there are 106 games to go and as Kevin Garnett would say “Anything is Possible!” but let’s face it, things aren’t looking good. To win 85 games, a probable minimum for a playoff berth, they would need to go 62-44 the rest of the way, 18 games over .500 and a .585 winning percentage.

At some point, typically in early July, teams decide whether they are going to be buyers or sellers. What does that mean? Teams who think they are in contention for a playoff spot will look to add players who will help their chances. Teams who think they won’t be in contention for a playoff spot will look to offload their good players with expiring contracts. Why? Because they are ideal low risk candidates for the acquiring team and could possibly bring back young major leaguers or minor league prospects to help the selling team the following year.

This year is a bit different. The players’ current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) is expiring at the end of the season and the opening salvos in the negotiation of the next one have been fired. By all accounts, this will be the most contentious negotiations since the 1994 season, when the players went on strike in August and the World Series had to be cancelled. One of the main issues, a salary cap, was the cause of that strike and this will be the main issue in this year’s negotiations as well.

The way this plays into the trade deadline is that if there is a strike or lockout in 2027, the players will probably not get paid for however long the work stoppage lasts. This may cause a team to trade for a player who has a deal through 2027, gambling that they won’t have to pay him.

So, for now let’s assume things don’t get better for the Red Sox and they want to trade away their expiring contracts and bring back as many good young players as they possibly can. Who are the biggest trade candidates? Here is a list of some players that could be used as trade chips at the 2026 deadline:

While it is possible that the Red Sox might try to move players with long term deals, it is unlikely. Garrett Crochet and Ranger Suarez are owed a lot of money and not many teams may want to take that on. Here are the players that I think will be the hottest commodities at the deadline:

Aroldis Chapman

He is in his second season of being one of the best closers in baseball. Teams will probably be killing each other to get in the mix for him. They will only need to pay about one third of his $12M salary for 2026, and even though he has a vesting option in 2027, that season may not even happen. Watch for him to be a prime trading piece in July.

Willson Contreras

Contreras’ contract runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028. He has had a terrific year for the Red Sox and would be a great bat for a contending club. While his contract is not expiring, he is a player that a team would want to have for 2027 or take the chance that there is a work stoppage.

Sonny Gray

He has had a pretty good season so far for the Red Sox and is exactly the kind of starter that a team would want to a playoff run. They would only have to pay about one third of his $35M salary and his contract expires at the end of the season. This is the type of player that can command a very good haul at the deadline.

Jarren Duran

He is starting to heat up at the plate, and his glove has been good this year. He still has two more years of arbitration after this year, and this is very desirable for an acquiring club. His temperament may be an issue, but his speed is not. I think he will warrant some interest and possibly bring back some good prospects.

Garrett Whitlock

Whitlock has been an excellent back of the bullpen reliever for the Red Sox and has a very team friendly deal, with two club options in 2027 and 2028. He could be a key setup man for a team’s playoff run, and possibly a closer in a pinch. He’s that good.

What about the Albatrosses?

Of course, I’m talking about Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida. Story will probably be out until after the trade deadline so forget about that. Yoshida is a replacement level left-handed bat that might warrant some interest, but he’s owed $18M in 2027 which most teams wouldn’t want. I think the Red Sox are stuck with these two.

What about the Kids?

Brayan Bello, Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Ceddanne Rafaela could certainly warrant some interest from other teams, but their long-term contracts are probably not desirable. Rafaela is really the only one who has proven himself to be a valuable piece in the majors. There are also a bevy of controllable players that might be desired by other teams: Marcelo Mayer, Wilyer Abreu, Connelly Early, Payton Tolle, and Justin Slaten to name a few. Would the Red Sox be willing to part with any of these players if the return is right? They’d better be.

Who should be making the deals?

Here at the Fire Breslow Podcast, we are counting the days until Craig Breslow is, well, fired. I think this is now a forgone conclusion. The question is when. Once John Henry and Sam Kennedy get it through their thick skulls that this is a lost season, they should pull the trigger. Ideally this would be no later than late June so the front office can start preparing for trade negotiations. That’s fine, but who will be making the deals?

Let’s have a look at the current Executive Management Team under Craig Breslow:

Brian O’Halloran – Executive VP of Baseball Operations

O’Halloran was with the Padres under Larry Lucchino who brought him to the Red Sox. He rose through the ranks over the years and is now the top executive under Breslow. He was briefly the General Manager under Chaim Bloom but was renamed as an EVP when Bloom was fired.

Raquel Ferreira - Executive VP & Assistant GM

Ferreira was first hired by the Red Sox in 1999 as an administrative assistant. Theo Epstein made her Director of Minor League Administration in 2004. In 2019 after the Dombrowski firing, she became one of the interim front office leaders than managed the team until the Chaim Bloom hiring. In December of 2019 she was made an assistant general manager.

Eddie Romero - Executive VP & Assistant GM

Eddie started his career with the Red Sox in 2006 as an assistant in international scouting. His father played for the Red Sox from 1986-89. He was promoted to his current role in 2018. He has a background in both minor league and professional scouting, which makes him an interesting candidate for interim GM.

Michael Groopman & Taylor Smith - Senior VPs & AGMs

These two are lower level executives and are probably not candidates to fill an interim GM position.

I think it is clear that Brian O’Halloran would be the obvious choice to be an interim GM and carry out any trade negotiations. Ferreira has been mostly on the administrative side and seems not to have scouting experience, but she may be valuable from a contract negotiation standpoint. Romero’s experience may be very valuable from a talent evaluation perspective. So, this could be an executive trio with O’Halloran at the top. Between the three of them, they may be effective at bringing back valuable assets, but I won’t get my hopes up. This front office consistently finds ways to underwhelm.

The other option is hiring from the outside, but seriously who would want a job under Sam Kennedy that will probably last only 3 months? The Red Sox are toast for 2026, but they might still be able to salvage the season by building for the future. Red Sox Nation prays that John Henry makes the right decision to fire Craig Breslow early enough to allow his front office to prepare for the trade deadline.

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